The arrival of the new US President Joe Biden in the White House, the 25th anniversary of the Dayton Peace Agreement and the absolute blockade of political processes in Bosnia and Herzegovina are three key factors that will, of course, launch a new international initiative for our country, which has not been seen in the last ten years!
As "Avaz" finds out, experts and negotiators from several key countries are already working on the preparation of possible proposals for comprehensive reforms, which will, without a doubt, be a combination of the new reform agenda for the EU and the so-called the Butmir package of constitutional reforms.
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Geopolitical changes, as well as developments at the domestic level, have already created enough political interest and will, to activate serious negotiations on a key issue in the spring - how to change the Dayton system that would allow B&H to meet the conditions for European Union membership without blockades.
Addresses by senior world officials on the occasion of the 25th anniversary of signing Dayton Peace Agreement, including that of Bill Clinton, confirms that all key world powers understand that the situation in the country has reached a point where without international initiative, mediation, pressure and influence, not only will B&H not progress - but there is a serious danger of an uncontrolled deterioration of the situation.
Especially since the economic crisis due to the pandemic, the migrant wave, the accumulated corruption and political frictions is leading B&H to the most difficult challenge since the signing of Dayton.
As we have learned from diplomatic sources, the talks will first be initiated from the technical level in order to adjust some of the previously proposed solutions to constitutional changes and harmonize them with the obligations of the state based on the judgments of the European Court of Human Rights.
Then the initiative will be raised to the highest political level and, with the mediation of Washington, Brussels, London and Berlin, put on the table for domestic leaders so that the changes will take effect before the general elections in 2022. An important fact, as a precondition for the success of this initiative, is the relatively precise position of Belgrade and Zagreb and their readiness to normalize relations with B&H.
It should be reminded that the "Butmir package" of constitutional reforms was a joint proposal of the USA and the EU and after several unsuccessful negotiations during 2009. and 2010, and was eventually set aside, although it had several very acceptable solutions, including indirect election of the president and two vice presidents of B&H, increasing the capacity of the state parliament, reducing the possibility of blockades in the House of Peoples and the so-called European clause.
Precisely, this could be one of the main solutions for the new package as well. According to it, all political players are committed to the fact that issues related to European integration cannot be blocked indefinitely by "vital national interests". Although unsuccessful, the Butmir process brought a very positive turning point for B&H - during these negotiations, reforms were agreed on the basis of which the visa regime for the European Union for the citizens of B&H was abolished exactly 10 years ago.
In addition to the legacy of the "Butmir package", the new initiative will include successful variables from the so-called Reform agenda that also brought limited progress on the European path, but did not include substantial constitutional reforms. The second set of the Reform Agenda, which concerns several technical and implementation reforms, has already been drafted in principle, but the formation of sufficient parliamentary majorities has been awaited. Now that part of the obligations will be integrated into the new "deal" for B&H.
The anniversary of the signing of the Dayton Agreement and the election of Joe Biden as the president of the USA contributed to the opening of talks on B&H, believes the analyst of the Initiative for European Stability from Berlin, Adnan Ćerimagić. He adds that the return of B&H to the focus of the international community was helped by the events in the country itself, which, from the perspective of Berlin, London and Washington, are seen as progress.
