Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov announced a two-day visit to Bosnia and Herzegovina on December 14th and 15th this year. Lavrov was supposed to come to B&H ahead of the local elections, but due to isolation he had to cancel his visit at the time.
However, the date of this visit was carefully chosen due to the fact that December 14th will mark the 25th anniversary of signing the Dayton Peace Agreement in Paris. In this way, Lavrov directly signals his commitment to Dayton, but in the way they see it in Moscow, absolutely different from other members of the Peace Implementation Council.
According to diplomatic sources, the visit of Putin's most important man to Bosnia and Herzegovina is perceived as a very strong attempt by Moscow to show by changed geopolitical conditions that it will not so easily give up the already achieved level of influence in the Balkans, especially in B&H.
- Lavrov is a high-ranking Russian official and the fact that he is coming to B&H in such circumstances, while the pandemic lasts, shows that Moscow does not intend to give in easily or leave its influence to someone else. This date and the manner of realization of the visit are a message to the United States of America and especially to the European Union that Russia remains an international player in the region - our source states.
It is known that Russian views the Dayton Agreement in a completely different way from the international community, the United States, the EU and other world powers, and opposes B&H's progress towards membership in the Union and NATO.
- Russia is undoubtedly worried by serious announcements from Washington that the new administration will strongly support B&H's integration into the European and Euro-Atlantic community. That is why Lavrov wants to personally tell his rivals that he has players in B&H - our sources said.
However, well-informed sources believe that, although Russian influence is evident in B&H, they will not be able to prevent a possible stronger initiative from Washington. It is more likely that the Russians will try to slow down the American initiative through partners from the European Union.
Nevertheless, the visit of the Russian official, which comes after the visit of the American Secretary of State to the region and the visit of the European Foreign Minister to B&H, indicates that great and important world officials are taking positions before the new US administration begins its activities.
All of these are clear signals that a major international initiative to address the remaining issues in BiH could be expected as early as next spring, especially with regard to constitutional reform. In this regard, in addition to the American initiative, the role of Brussels will be important, but also indirectly Moscow.
